Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
